Physiology Evolves Convergently but Lags Behind Warming in Cities

Cities, through the generation of urban heat islands, provide a venue for exploring contemporary convergent evolution to climatic warming. We quantified how repeatable the evolution of heat tolerance, cold tolerance, and body size was among diverse lineages in response to urban heat islands. Our study revealed significant shifts toward higher heat tolerance and diminished cold tolerance among urban populations. We further found that the magnitude of trait divergence was significantly and positively associated with the magnitude of the urban heat island, suggesting that temperature played a major role in the observed divergence in thermal tolerance. Despite these trends, the magnitude of trait responses lagged behind environmental warming. Heat tolerance responses exhibited a deficit of 0.84°C for every 1°C increase in warming, suggesting limits on adaptive evolution and consequent adaptational lags. Other moderators were predictive of greater divergence in heat tolerance, including lower baseline tolerance and greater divergence in body size. Although terrestrial species did not exhibit systematic shifts toward larger or smaller body size, aquatic species exhibited significant shifts toward smaller body size in urban habitats. Our study demonstrates how cities can be used to address long-standing questions in evolutionary biology regarding the repeatability of evolution. Importantly, this work also shows how cities can be used as forecasting tools by quantifying adaptational lags and by developing trait-based associations with responses to contemporary warming.