Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO₂ concentration from 1950 to 2100

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Geology
• Atmospheric Science

Background:

• Cave environments are sensitive to external factors like temperature and soil moisture.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in caves can be affected by natural processes and human activities.
• Understanding CO2 dynamics is crucial for heritage preservation and environmental monitoring.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a data-driven model for CO2 concentration in Altamira cave.
• To identify key drivers of CO2 fluctuations: outside temperature and soil moisture.
• To forecast CO2 levels from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios and assess monitoring capabilities.

Main Methods:

• A data-driven approach, insensitive to initial conditions, was used to derive governing equations for CO2 concentration.
• The model was reformulated to incorporate satellite observations and meteorological predictions as forcing data.
• Historical (1950-2000) and future (to 2100) CO2 levels were simulated under different scenarios.

Main Results:

• Extreme CO2 levels were observed between 1950-1972, primarily due to high visitor numbers.
• Real-time CO2 monitoring within the cave is feasible using satellite data as external forcing.
• Future CO2 maximums are projected to surpass 1980s-1990s levels, even with reduced tourism, exacerbating wall and pigment micro-corrosion.

Conclusions:

• The developed model accurately captures CO2 dynamics in Altamira cave.
• Tourism significantly impacts cave CO2 levels, with long-term implications for heritage structures.
• Satellite-based monitoring offers a viable tool for managing cave environments and mitigating risks.