Contingency inferences from base rates: A parsimonious strategy?

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Decision-making
• Statistical inference

Background:

• The pseudocontingency framework simplifies contingency inference using base rates.
• Varying base rates across contexts can lead to inconsistent inferences.
• Understanding how base-rate consistency affects learning and reliance is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the influence of base-rate consistency on learning and reliance.
• To contrast consistent versus inconsistent base rates in contingency inference.
• To explore the role of context plausibility in base-rate utilization.

Main Methods:

• Experiment 1: Compared consistent and inconsistent base rates across four contexts.
• Experiment 2: Manipulated context plausibility as a moderator of contingency.
• Assessed base-rate learning accuracy and contingency inferences.

Main Results:

• Base rates were learned equally accurately regardless of consistency.
• Participants' inferences followed base rates, deviating from true contingencies.
• Inconsistent base rates led to stronger base-rate inferences when context was an implausible moderator.

Conclusions:

• Contingency inference from base rates involves top-down processing.
• Base-rate consistency influences reliance, particularly when context is implausible.
• People actively decide how to integrate base-rate information into their judgments.