Individualized radiology screening for newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Current guidelines recommend universal PET/CT screening for metastases staging in newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) despite the low rate of synchronous distant metastasis (SDM). The study aims to achieve individualized screening recommendations of NPC based on the risk of SDM.

18 pre-treatment peripheral blood indicators was retrospectively collected from 2271 primary NPC patients. A peripheral blood risk score (PBRS) was constructed by indicators associated with SDM on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The PBRS-based distant metastases (PBDM) model was developed from features selected by logistic regression analyses in the training cohort and then validated in the validation cohort. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate PBDM model performance.

Pre-treatment Epstein-Barr viral DNA copy number, percentage of total lymphocytes, serum lactate dehydrogenase level, and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio were most strongly associated with SDM in NPC and used to construct the PBRS. Sex (male), T stage (T3-4), N stage (N2-3), and PBRS (≥1.076) were identified as independent risk factors for SDM and applied in the PBDM model, which showed good performance. Through the model, patients in the training cohort were stratified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Individualized screening recommendations were then developed for patients with differing risk levels.

The PBDM model offers individualized recommendations for applying PET/CT for metastases staging in NPC, allowing more targeted screening of patients with greater risk of SDM compared with current recommendations.