Population structure and spatial distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is one of the countries with a high tuberculosis (TB) burden, yet little is known about the spatial distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) lineages. This study identifies the spoligotyping of 1735 archived Mtb isolates from the National Drug Resistance Survey, collected between November 2011 and June 2013, to investigate Mtb population structure and spatial distribution. Spoligotype International Types (SITs) and lineages were retrieved from online databases. The distribution of lineages was evaluated using Fisher's exact test and logistic regression models. The Global Moran's Index and Getis-Ord Gi statistic were utilized to identify hotspot areas. Our results showed that spoligotypes could be interpreted and led to 4 lineages and 283 spoligotype patterns in 91% of the isolates, including 4% of those with multidrug/rifampicin resistance (MDR/RR) TB. The identified Mtb lineages were lineage 1 (1.8%), lineage 3 (25.9%), lineage 4 (70.6%) and lineage 7 (1.6%). The proportion of lineages 3 and 4 varied by regions, with lineage 3 being significantly greater than lineage 4 in reports from Gambella (AOR = 4.37, P < 0.001) and Tigray (AOR = 3.44, P = 0.001) and lineage 4 being significantly higher in Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (AOR = 1.97, P = 0.026) than lineage 3. Hotspots for lineage 1 were located in eastern Ethiopia, while a lineage 7 hotspot was identified in northern and western Ethiopia. The five prevalent spoligotypes, which were SIT149, SIT53, SIT25, SIT37 and SIT26 account for 42.8% of all isolates under investigation, while SIT149, SIT53 and SIT21 account for 52-57.8% of drug-resistant TB cases. TB and drug resistant TB are mainly caused by lineages 3 and 4, and significant proportions of the prevalent spoligotypes also influence drug-resistant TB and the total TB burden. Regional variations in lineages may result from both local and cross-border spread.