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Updated: Jun 27, 2025

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Large environmental changes reduce valence-dependent belief updating.

Juan Cruz Beron1,2, Guillermo Solovey3, Ignacio A Ferrelli1,2

  • 1Instituto de Fisiología, Biología Molecular y Neurociencias (IFIByNE)-CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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|May 7, 2024
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Summary

During environmental change, people update beliefs more symmetrically. However, individuals with higher Trait-anxiety show biased belief updating, revealing vulnerabilities in adapting to uncertainty.

Keywords:
Belief updatingCOVID-19Computational modelingOptimism biasThreat-anxiety

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • Humans typically integrate desirable information more than undesirable information when updating beliefs.
  • This belief updating asymmetry favors motivation in stable environments but can lead to risk underestimation in changing environments.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic quarantine presented an abrupt environmental change, offering a unique context to study information integration.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine how individuals integrate threatening information during a significant environmental change (COVID-19 quarantine).
  • To explore the relationship between anxiety levels and belief updating asymmetry in this context.
  • To investigate whether individual differences in anxiety modulate belief updating during uncertainty.

Main Methods:

  • A belief update task was administered to 388 participants during a mandatory quarantine.
  • Computational modeling was used to analyze belief update patterns.
  • Trait-anxiety, State-Anxiety, Health-Anxiety, and Trait-Optimism were assessed.

Main Results:

  • A significant reduction in asymmetrical belief updating was observed during the environmental change, with desirable and undesirable information integrated similarly.
  • This reduction in asymmetry was supported by computational modeling.
  • Individuals with higher Trait-anxiety exhibited valence-dependent updating, similar to stable environments, while others updated more symmetrically.

Conclusions:

  • Highly uncertain environments can promote adaptive changes in information integration, leading to more balanced belief updating.
  • Individuals with higher Trait-anxiety show a vulnerability, maintaining biased updating patterns even during significant environmental shifts.
  • The findings highlight how anxiety levels influence an individual's ability to adapt information processing in response to uncertainty.