A Novel Approach to Integrate Human Biomonitoring Data with Model Predicted Dietary Exposures: A Crop Protection...

The appropriate use of human biomonitoring data to model population chemical exposures is challenging, especially for rapidly metabolized chemicals, such as agricultural chemicals. The objective of this study is to demonstrate a novel approach integrating model predicted dietary exposures and biomonitoring data to potentially inform regulatory risk assessments. We use lambda-cyhalothrin as a case study, and for the same representative U.S. population in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model predicted exposures are calibrated to measurements of the urinary metabolite 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3PBA), using an approximate Bayesian computing (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate that the correlation between modeled urinary 3PBA and the NHANES 3PBA measurements more than doubled as ABC thresholding narrowed the acceptable tolerance range for predicted versus observed urinary measurements. The median predicted urinary concentrations were closer to the median measured value using ABC than using current regulatory Monte Carlo methods.