Evaluating the temperature-mortality relationship over 16 years in Cyprus.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Climate Change Impact

Background:

• The relationship between ambient temperature and mortality is established globally.
• Cyprus, a Mediterranean island, faces rapid climate change with limited data on temperature-mortality associations.
• Understanding these risks is crucial for public health planning in rapidly warming regions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the association between daily ambient temperature and all-cause mortality in Cyprus.
• To quantify the excess mortality burden attributed to temperature extremes.
• To inform public health interventions and climate adaptation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Time-series analysis using quasipoisson distribution and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM).
• Data collected from five districts in Cyprus between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019.
• Meta-analysis performed to estimate the overall temperature-mortality dose-response relationship.

Main Results:

• No significant heterogeneity in temperature-mortality associations was found across the five districts.
• Cold effects: Relative risks of mortality were 1.55, 1.41, and 1.32 for the 1st, 2.5th, and 5th temperature percentiles, respectively.
• Heat effects: Relative risks of mortality were 1.10, 1.17, and 1.29 for the 95th, 97.5th, and 99th temperature percentiles, respectively.
• Excess mortality: Cold days accounted for 8.0% of deaths, while heat days accounted for 1.3% of deaths.

Conclusions:

• Both cold and heat extremes pose significant mortality risks in Cyprus.
• Cold temperatures contribute substantially more to excess mortality than heat.
• Urgent need for targeted public health interventions and climate adaptation strategies in Cyprus and similar regions.