Tracing fossil-based plastics, chemicals and fertilizers production in China

Phasing down fossil fuels is crucial for climate mitigation. Even though 80-90% of fossil fuels are used to provide energy, their use as feedstock to produce plastics, fertilizers, and chemicals, is associated with substantial CO₂ emissions. However, our understanding of hard-to-abate chemical production remains limited. Here we developed a chemical process-based material flow model to investigate the non-energy use of fossil fuels and CO₂ emissions in China. Results show in 2017, the chemical industry used 0.18 Gt of coal, 88.8 Mt of crude oil, and 12.9 Mt of natural gas as feedstock, constituting 5%, 15%, and 7% of China's respective total use. Coal-fed production of methanol, ammonia, and PVCs contributes to 0.27 Gt CO₂ emissions ( ~ 3% of China's emissions). As China seeks to balance high CO₂ emissions of coal-fed production with import dependence on oil and gas, improving energy efficiency and coupling green hydrogen emerges as attractive alternatives for decarbonization.