Sediment DNA Records the Critical Transition of Bacterial Communities in the Arid Lake

It is necessary to predict the critical transition of lake ecosystems due to their abrupt, non-linear effects on social-economic systems. Given the promising application of paleolimnological archives to tracking the historical changes of lake ecosystems, it is speculated that they can also record the lake's critical transition. We studied Lake Dali-Nor in the arid region of Inner Mongolia because of the profound shrinking the lake experienced between the 1300 s and the 1600 s. We reconstructed the succession of bacterial communities from a 140-cm-long sediment core at 4-cm intervals and detected the critical transition. Our results showed that the historical trajectory of bacterial communities from the 1200 s to the 2010s was divided into two alternative states: state1 from 1200 to 1300 s and state2 from 1400 to 2010s. Furthermore, in the late 1300 s, the appearance of a tipping point and critical slowing down implied the existence of a critical transition. By using a multi-decadal time series from the sedimentary core, with general Lotka-Volterra model simulations, local stability analysis found that bacterial communities were the most unstable as they approached the critical transition, suggesting that the collapse of stability triggers the community shift from an equilibrium state to another state. Furthermore, the most unstable community harbored the strongest antagonistic and mutualistic interactions, which may imply the detrimental role of interaction strength on community stability. Collectively, our study showed that sediment DNA can be used to detect the critical transition of lake ecosystems.