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Related Concept Videos

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  3. Research Domains
  5. Agricultural, Veterinary And Food Sciences
  7. Agriculture, Land And Farm Management
  9. Agricultural Production Systems Simulation
  11. Economic And Financial Viability Of A Pig Farm In Central Semi-tropical Mexico: 2022-2026 Prospective.

Economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central semi-tropical Mexico: 2022-2026 prospective.

Francisco Ernesto Martínez-Castañeda1, Nicolás Callejas-Juárez2, Oscar Cuevas-Reyes1

  • 1Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca, México.

Plos One
|May 9, 2024

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study used Monte Carlo simulation to assess pig farm viability in Mexico. Results show significant net income growth and reduced risk, indicating strong economic potential for the pork sector.

Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Economics
  • Financial Modeling
  • Sub-tropical Agriculture

Background:

  • Assessing the economic viability of agricultural enterprises is crucial for investment and policy decisions.
  • The pork sector in sub-tropical regions presents unique economic challenges and opportunities.
  • Predicting long-term financial performance requires robust simulation models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the economic and financial viability of a pig farm in central sub-tropical Mexico over a 5-year horizon.
  • To project net returns and assess financial risks using stochastic modeling.
  • To provide evidence for the suitability of the pork sector for public investment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a Monte Carlo simulation model for economic and financial projections.

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  • Established 2021 as the base scenario for a 5-year planning horizon.
  • Employed a stochastic modeling approach to analyze input/product distributions and financial outlook.

    • Main Results:

    • Projected net income increase of 555% between 2022 and 2026.
    • Return on assets projected to rise from 3.36% (2022) to 11.34% (2026).
    • Probability of decapitalization decreased from 58% to 13%; negative net income probability dropped from 40% to 18% over the period.

    Conclusions:

    • The pig farm demonstrates economic and financial viability within the planning horizon.
    • Effective technological, productive, and economic management are key drivers of favorable outcomes.
    • The study validates the pork sector's suitability for public investment and support, offering methodological insights.