Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Epidemiology
• Climate science

Background:

• Global dengue epidemics exhibit complex dynamics, challenging prediction efforts.
• While El Niño events are known factors, a comprehensive predictive indicator is lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify reliable climate indicators for predicting global dengue incidence.
• To assess the association between climate variability and worldwide dengue outbreaks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized climate-driven mechanistic models to analyze worldwide dengue incidence (1990-2019).
• Investigated various climate indicators, focusing on sea surface temperature anomalies.

Main Results:

• Identified the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index as a key indicator, representing tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies.
• The IOBW index demonstrated a strong correlation with dengue epidemics in both Northern and Southern hemispheres.
• Teleconnections between IOBW and local temperature anomalies likely explain its predictive power.

Conclusions:

• The IOBW index offers a promising tool for enhancing lead time in dengue forecasts.
• Improved dengue forecasting can facilitate better-planned and more effective outbreak response strategies.