Spatial Heterogeneity in Fatal Overdose Rate Trends in Mexican Cities: 2005-2021

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Drug Policy

Background:

• Fatal drug overdoses represent a growing public health crisis globally.
• Understanding geographic and temporal trends is crucial for targeted interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze national and city-level fatal drug overdose trends in Mexico from 2005 to 2021.
• To identify high-risk areas and temporal patterns in overdose deaths.

Main Methods:

• Calculated fatal overdose rates at city and national levels for individuals aged 15-64.
• Analyzed trends using 3-year periods and annual national data.
• Computed rate differences and ratios to compare periods and cities.

Main Results:

• The national fatal overdose rate was 0.53 per 100,000 population, double in urban compared to non-urban areas.
• Rates were stable until 2014, then increased sharply to a peak in 2021.
• The highest overdose rates were concentrated in cities along the US-Mexico border.

Conclusions:

• Fatal overdoses have doubled in Mexico over the last 15 years.
• Cities near the US-Mexico border show particularly high and increasing overdose rates.
• Enhanced surveillance and harm reduction are critical, especially in border regions.