Utilizing median and maximum QTc values improves prediction of breakthrough cardiac events in pediatric long QT syndrome

Although prior studies indicate that a QTc > 500 ms on a single baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is associated with significantly increased risk of arrhythmic events in long QT syndrome (LQTS), less is known about the risk of persistent QT prolongation. We sought to determine QTc persistence and its prognostic effect on breakthrough cardiac events (BCEs) among pediatric patients treated for LQTS.

We performed a retrospective analysis of 433 patients with LQTS evaluated, risk-stratified, and undergoing active guideline-based LQTS treatment between 1999 and 2019. BCEs were defined as arrhythmogenic syncope/seizure, sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), appropriate VF-terminating ICD shock, and sudden cardiac death (SCD).

During the median follow-up of 5.5 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 3-9), 32 (7%) patients experienced a total of 129 BCEs. A maximum QTc threshold of 520 ms and median QTc threshold of 490 ms were determined to be strong predictors for BCEs. A landmark analysis controlling for age, sex, genotype, and symptomatic status demonstrated models utilizing both the median QTc and maximum QTc demonstrated the highest discriminatory value (c-statistic = 0.93-0.95). Patients in the high-risk group (median QTc > 490 ms and maximum QTc > 520 ms) had a significantly lower BCE free survival (70%-81%) when compared to patients in both medium-risk (93%-97%) and low-risk (98%-99%) groups.

The risk of BCE among patients treated for LQTS increases not only based upon their maximum QTc, but also their median QTc (persistence of QTc prolongation). Patients with a maximum QTc > 520 ms and median QTc > 490 ms over serial 12-lead ECGs are at the highest risk of BCE while on guideline-directed medical therapy.