Irrigation strengthens climate resilience: Long-term evidence from Mali using satellites and surveys

Agriculture in the Sahel and much of sub-Saharan Africa remains to a large extent rainfed. At the same time, climate change is already causing less predictable rainfall patterns in the region, even as rising temperatures increase the amount of water needed for agricultural production. We assess to what extent irrigation can strengthen the climate resilience of farming communities. Our study sample consists of nearly 1,000 distinct locations in Mali in which small-scale, river-based irrigation was introduced over the past two decades, as weather conditions worsened and political upheaval erupted. Using the staggered roll-out of the irrigation and repeated observations over 20 years allows us to compare the pre- and postirrigation outcomes of locations while adjusting for confounding factors. We geospatially link data on irrigation interventions with agricultural conditions measured using satellite imagery and surveys, as well as child nutrition and health outcomes and conflict event data. Using a two-way fixed effects model to quasi-experimentally estimate counterfactual outcomes, we find that the introduction of irrigation led to substantial increases in agricultural production on supported fields, with these gains persisting even a decade later. Children in nearby communities are less likely to be stunted or wasted due to the irrigation, and conflict risks decrease in the closest communities. Some of these gains are offset by worsening conditions farther away from the newly installed irrigation. These findings suggest that, even with political conflicts in semi-arid areas already increasing, sustainable irrigation may offer a valuable tool to improve communities' long-term well-being and social cohesion.