Development and Validation of an Explainable Deep Learning Model to Predict In-Hospital Mortality for Patients With
Puguang Xie1, Hao Wang1, Jun Xiao1
1Chongqing Emergency Medical Centre, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
Background:
Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is one of the most severe cardiovascular diseases and is associated with a high risk of in-hospital mortality. However, the current deep learning models for in-hospital mortality prediction lack interpretability.
Objective:
This study aims to establish an explainable deep learning model to provide individualized in-hospital mortality prediction and risk factor assessment for patients with AMI.
Methods:
In this retrospective multicenter study, we used data for consecutive patients hospitalized with AMI from the Chongqing University Central Hospital between July 2016 and December 2022 and the Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database. These patients were randomly divided into training (7668/10,955, 70%) and internal test (3287/10,955, 30%) data sets. In addition, data of patients with AMI from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database were used for external validation. Deep learning models were used to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI, and they were compared with linear and tree-based models. The Shapley Additive Explanations method was used to explain the model with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in both the internal test and external validation data sets to quantify and visualize the features that drive predictions.
Results:
A total of 10,955 patients with AMI who were admitted to Chongqing University Central Hospital or included in the Electronic Intensive Care Unit Collaborative Research Database were randomly divided into a training data set of 7668 (70%) patients and an internal test data set of 3287 (30%) patients. A total of 9355 patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database were included for independent external validation. In-hospital mortality occurred in 8.74% (670/7668), 8.73% (287/3287), and 9.12% (853/9355) of the patients in the training, internal test, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The Self-Attention and Intersample Attention Transformer model performed best in both the internal test data set and the external validation data set among the 9 prediction models, with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.88) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.84-0.87), respectively. Older age, high heart rate, and low body temperature were the 3 most important predictors of increased mortality, according to the explanations of the Self-Attention and Intersample Attention Transformer model.
Conclusions:
The explainable deep learning model that we developed could provide estimates of mortality and visual contribution of the features to the prediction for a patient with AMI. The explanations suggested that older age, unstable vital signs, and metabolic disorders may increase the risk of mortality in patients with AMI.
