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Bad apples and incredible certitude.

Michael Sierra-Arévalo1, Andrew Papachristos2

  • 1Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA.

Criminology & Public Policy
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Removing "bad apples" may be more effective at reducing police misconduct than previously thought. Accounting for network spillovers significantly increases estimated impacts, suggesting this approach offers substantial benefits.

Keywords:
incredible certitudemisconductpolicingpolicyspillover effects

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Public Policy
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Police misconduct, including excessive force and civilian complaints, poses significant challenges to public trust and safety.
  • Previous research has explored various interventions to mitigate police misconduct.
  • The effectiveness of removing "bad apple" officers remains a subject of debate.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically evaluate the conclusions of Chalfin and Kaplan (CK) regarding the impact of incapacitating "bad apple" officers on police misconduct.
  • To re-examine the efficacy of removing underperforming officers by incorporating network spillover effects.
  • To assess the policy implications of different approaches to reducing police misconduct.

Main Methods:

  • Simulation analyses using data on police complaints and uses of force from the Chicago Police Department.
  • Critique of CK's selective use of simulation results.
  • Incorporation of network spillover effects into misconduct analyses.

Main Results:

  • CK's conclusion that incapacitating officers has minimal effects on misconduct is challenged.
  • When network spillovers are considered, the estimated impact of removing "bad apples" can be up to five times larger.
  • The effectiveness of removing "bad apples" is comparable to other interventions aimed at reducing police misconduct.

Conclusions:

  • The removal of "bad apple" officers is a potentially effective strategy for reducing police misconduct.
  • Policy decisions should consider the broader impacts, including network spillovers, when evaluating interventions.
  • Reducing police misconduct yields significant benefits in terms of reduced human suffering and financial costs, making the pursuit of officer accountability a moral imperative.