A validated model to predict spread through air space in lung adenocarcinoma

Spread through air space (STAS) is currently considered to be a significant predictor of a poor outcome of pulmonary adenocarcinoma. Preoperative prediction of STAS is of great importance for treatment planning. The aim of the present study was to establish a nomogram based on computed tomography (CT) features for predicting STAS in lung adenocarcinoma and to assess the prognosis of the patients with STAS.

A retrospective cohort study was performed in Wuhan Union Hospital from December 2015 to March 2021. The sample was divided into training and testing cohorts. Clinicopathologic and radiologic variables were recorded. The independent risk factors for STAS were determined by stepwise regression and then incorporated into the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves analysed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to determine the clinical value of the nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis and the multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent predictors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

The sample included 244 patients who underwent surgical resection for primary lung adenocarcinoma. The training cohort included 199 patients (68 STAS-positive and 131 STAS-negative patients), and the testing cohort included 45 patients (15 STAS-positive and 30 STAS-negative patients). The preoperative CT features associated with STAS were shape, ground-glass opacity (GGO) ratio and spicules. The nomogram including these three factors had good discriminative power, and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.875 and 0.922 for the training and testing data sets, respectively, with well-fitted calibration curves. DCA showed that the nomogram was clinically useful. STAS-positive patients had significantly worse OS and RFS than STAS-negative patients (both P<0.01). OS and RFS at 5-year for STAS-positive patients were 63.1% and 59.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR), 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.035-1.169; P=0.002], diameter (HR, 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04-1.11; P=0.03) and surgical margin (HR, 32.8; 95% CI: 6.8-158.3; P<0.001) were independent risk factors for OS. Adjuvant therapy (HR, 7.345; 95% CI: 2.52-21.41; P<0.001), N stage (N2) (HR, 0.239; 95% CI: 0.069-0.828; P=0.02) and surgical margin (HR, 15.6; 95% CI: 5.9-41.1; P<0.001) were found to be independent risk factors for RFS.

The outcome of STAS-positive patients was worse. The nomogram incorporating the identified CT features could be applied to facilitate individualized preoperative prediction of STAS and selection of rational therapy.