Prospective Validation of a Simple Risk Score to Predict Hospitalization during the Omicron Phase of COVID-19

We previously developed a simple risk score with 3 items (age, patient report of dyspnea, and any relevant comorbidity), and in this report validate it in a prospective sample of patients, stratified by vaccination status.

Data were abstracted from a structured electronic health record of primary care and urgent care 8 patients with COVID-19 in the Lehigh Valley Health Network from 11/21/2021 and 10/31/2022 9 (Omicron variant). Our previously derived risk score was calculated for each of 19,456 patients, 10 and the likelihood of hospitalization was determined. Area under the ROC curve was calculated.

We were able to place 13,239 patients (68%) in a low-risk group with only a 0.16% risk of 13 hospitalization. The moderate risk group with 5622 patients had a 2.2% risk of hospitalization 14 and might benefit from close outpatient follow-up, whereas the high-risk group with only 574 15 patients (2.9% of all patients) had an 8.9% risk of hospitalization and may require further 16 evaluation. Area under the curve was 0.844.

We prospectively validated a simple risk score for primary and urgent care patients with COVID1919 that can support outpatient triage decisions around COVID-19.