Prognostic value of CDKN2A in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma via pathomics and machine learning

This study aims to enhance the prognosis prediction of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) by employing artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse CDKN2A gene expression from pathology images, directly correlating with patient outcomes. Our approach introduces a novel AI-driven pathomics framework, delineating a more precise relationship between CDKN2A expression and survival rates compared to previous studies. Utilizing 475 HNSCC cases from the TCGA database, we stratified patients into high-risk and low-risk groups based on CDKN2A expression thresholds. Through pathomics analysis of 271 cases with available slides, we extracted 465 distinctive features to construct a Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model. This model was then employed to compute Pathomics scores (PS), predicting CDKN2A expression levels with validation for accuracy and pathway association analysis. Our study demonstrates a significant correlation between higher CDKN2A expression and improved median overall survival (66.73 months for high expression vs. 42.97 months for low expression, p = 0.013), establishing CDKN2A's prognostic value. The pathomic model exhibited exceptional predictive accuracy (training AUC: 0.806; validation AUC: 0.710) and identified a strong link between higher Pathomics scores and cell cycle activation pathways. Validation through tissue microarray corroborated the predictive capacity of our model. Confirming CDKN2A as a crucial prognostic marker in HNSCC, this study advances the existing literature by implementing an AI-driven pathomics analysis for gene expression evaluation. This innovative methodology offers a cost-efficient and non-invasive alternative to traditional diagnostic procedures, potentially revolutionizing personalized medicine in oncology.