Nonlinear modeling of oral glucose tolerance test response to evaluate associations with aging outcomes

As people age, their ability to maintain homeostasis in response to stressors diminishes. Physical frailty, a syndrome characterized by loss of resilience to stressors, is thought to emerge due to dysregulation of and breakdowns in communication among key physiological systems. Dynamical systems modeling of these physiological systems aims to model the underlying processes that govern response to stressors. We hypothesize that dynamical systems model summaries are predictive of age-related declines in health and function. In this study, we analyze data obtained during 75-gram oral-glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) on 1,120 adults older than 50 years of age from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging. We adopt a two-stage modeling approach. First, we fit OGTT curves with the Ackerman model-a nonlinear, parametric model of the glucose-insulin system-and with functional principal components analysis. We then fit linear and Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate whether usual gait speed and survival are associated with the stage-one model summaries. We also develop recommendations for identifying inadequately-fitting nonlinear model fits in a cohort setting with numerous heterogeneous response curves. These recommendations include: (1) defining a constrained parameter space that ensures biologically plausible model fits, (2) evaluating the relative discrepancy between predicted and observed responses of biological interest, and (3) identifying model fits that have notably poor model fit summary measures, such as [Formula: see text], relative to other fits in the cohort. The Ackerman model was unable to adequately fit 36% of the OGTT curves. The stage-two regression analyses found no associations between Ackerman model summaries and usual gait speed, nor with survival. The second functional principal component score was associated with faster gait speed (p<0.01) and improved survival (p<0.01).