Cropland Microclimate and Leaf-nesting Behavior Shape the Growth of Caterpillar under Future Warming

Predicting performance responses of insects to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation and pest management. While most projections on insects' performance under climate change have used macro-scale weather station data, few incorporated the microclimates within vegetation that insects inhabit and their feeding behaviors (e.g., leaf-nesting: building leaf nests or feeding inside). Here, taking advantage of relatively homogenous vegetation structures in agricultural fields, we built microclimate models to examine fine-scale air temperatures within two important crop systems (maize and rice) and compared microclimate air temperatures to temperatures from weather stations. We deployed physical models of caterpillars and quantified effects of leaf-nesting behavior on operative temperatures of two Lepidoptera pests: Ostrinia furnacalis (Pyralidae) and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Crambidae). We built temperature-growth rate curves and predicted the growth rate of caterpillars with and without leaf-nesting behavior based on downscaled microclimate changes under different climate change scenarios. We identified widespread differences between microclimates in our crop systems and air temperatures reported by local weather stations. Leaf-nesting individuals in general had much lower body temperatures compared to non-leaf-nesting individuals. When considering microclimates, we predicted leaf-nesting individuals grow slower compared to non-leaf-nesting individuals with rising temperature. Our findings highlight the importance of considering microclimate and habitat-modifying behavior in predicting performance responses to climate change. Understanding the thermal biology of pests and other insects would allow us to make more accurate projections on crop yields and biodiversity responses to environmental changes.