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Association between mRNA COVID-19 vaccine boosters and mortality in Japan: The VENUS study
Wataru Mimura1, Chieko Ishiguro1, Megumi Maeda2
1Section of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Data Science, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Abstract:
Although previous studies have shown no increased mortality risk after the primary series of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, reports on booster doses are lacking. This study aimed to evaluate mortality risk after the mRNA vaccine boosters in addition to the primary series. This nested case-control study included two age-specific cohorts (18-64 and ≥65 years as of February 1, 2021) in two municipalities. All deaths were identified and matched five controls for each case at each date of death (index date) with risk set sampling according to municipality, age, and sex. The adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mRNA vaccines (first to fifth doses) were estimated by comparing with no vaccination within 21 and 42 days before the index date using a conditional logistic regression model. The 18-64-years cohort comprised 431 cases (mean age, 57.0 years; men, 58.2%) and 2,155 controls (mean age, 56.0; men, 58.2%), whereas the ≥65-years cohort comprised 12,166 cases (84.0; 50.2%) and 60,830 controls (84.0, 50.2%). The aORs (95% CI) in 0-21 days after the third and fourth doses in the 18-64-years cohort were 0.62 (0.24, 1.62) and 0.38 (0.08, 1.84), respectively. The aORs (95% CI) after the third to fifth doses in the ≥65 years cohort were 0.36 (0.31, 0.43), 0.30 (0.25, 0.37), and 0.26 (0.20, 0.33), respectively. In conclusion, booster doses of mRNA vaccines do not increase mortality risk. These findings could help subsequent vaccine campaigns and alleviate vaccine hesitancy.
Insights
COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster doses were evaluated for mortality risk. The study found no increased mortality risk associated with these booster doses in adults, supporting vaccine confidence.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Previous research indicated no increased mortality risk following primary COVID-19 mRNA vaccine series.
- Limited data existed on the safety of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster doses regarding mortality.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the mortality risk associated with mRNA vaccine booster doses in addition to the primary vaccination series.
- To provide evidence for public health policy and address vaccine hesitancy.
Main Methods:
- A nested case-control study design was employed, utilizing two age-specific cohorts (18-64 and ≥65 years).
- Deaths were identified and matched with five controls per case based on municipality, age, and sex.
- Conditional logistic regression analysis estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for mRNA vaccine doses (1st-5th) compared to unvaccinated individuals within 21 and 42 days.
Main Results:
- In the 18-64 years cohort, aORs for the 3rd and 4th doses within 0-21 days were 0.62 (95% CI: 0.24, 1.62) and 0.38 (95% CI: 0.08, 1.84), respectively.
- In the ≥65 years cohort, aORs for the 3rd, 4th, and 5th doses were 0.36 (95% CI: 0.31, 0.43), 0.30 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.37), and 0.26 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.33), respectively.
- These results indicate no increased mortality risk following mRNA vaccine boosters in either age group.
Conclusions:
- Booster doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are not associated with an increased risk of mortality.
- These findings can inform future vaccination campaigns and help mitigate vaccine hesitancy.
- The study reinforces the safety profile of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, including booster administrations.
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