Prediction of Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke Using Clinical Registries for Research

A reliable method of predicting large vessel occlusion (LVO) stroke in data sets without neuroimaging could be retrospectively applied to expand research efforts.

We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional cohort analysis of the Get With The Guidelines (GWTG)-Stroke registry. We included adult patients with a final diagnosis of ischemic stroke from 2016 to 2021 who had brain and vascular imaging and excluded those with missing data or posterior circulation stroke.

We included 416,022 patients of which 125,381 (30.1%) had LVO. The mean age was 71 years, and 48.2% were female. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the final model, including age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, TOAST stroke mechanism, and NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), was 0.79 (95% CI 0.79-0.80). Without TOAST mechanism, the AUC was 0.74. The specificity did not exceed 0.5 using different cut points for the NIHSS.

We found that 30% of adult acute ischemic stroke patients in GWTG-Stroke have LVO and that the combination of clinical covariates and NIHSS is only moderately predictive of LVO status. These results are consistent with previous studies and suggest it may not be possible to retrospectively predict LVO with high accuracy in data sets without vascular neuroimaging.