An improved epigenetic counter to track mitotic age in normal and precancerous tissues

The cumulative number of stem cell divisions in a tissue, known as mitotic age, is thought to be a major determinant of cancer-risk. Somatic mutational and DNA methylation (DNAm) clocks are promising tools to molecularly track mitotic age, yet their relationship is underexplored and their potential for cancer risk prediction in normal tissues remains to be demonstrated. Here we build and validate an improved pan-tissue DNAm counter of total mitotic age called stemTOC. We demonstrate that stemTOC's mitotic age proxy increases with the tumor cell-of-origin fraction in each of 15 cancer-types, in precancerous lesions, and in normal tissues exposed to major cancer risk factors. Extensive benchmarking against 6 other mitotic counters shows that stemTOC compares favorably, specially in the preinvasive and normal-tissue contexts. By cross-correlating stemTOC to two clock-like somatic mutational signatures, we confirm the mitotic-like nature of only one of these. Our data points towards DNAm as a promising molecular substrate for detecting mitotic-age increases in normal tissues and precancerous lesions, and hence for developing cancer-risk prediction strategies.