Epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers past, present and future: towards prevention and elimination

Cervical cancer is the first cancer deemed amenable to elimination through prevention, and thus lessons from the epidemiology and prevention of this cancer type can provide information on strategies to manage other cancers. Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV) causes virtually all cervical cancers, and an important proportion of oropharyngeal, anal and genital cancers. Whereas 20th century prevention efforts were dominated by cytology-based screening, the present and future of HPV-associated cancer prevention relies mostly on HPV vaccination and molecular screening tests. In this Review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of HPV-associated cancers, their disease burden, how past and contemporary preventive interventions have shaped their incidence and mortality, and the potential for elimination. We particularly focus on the cofactors that could have the greatest effect on prevention efforts, such as parity and human immunodeficiency virus infection, as well as on social determinants of health. Given that the incidence of and mortality from HPV-associated cancers remain strongly associated with the socioeconomic status of individuals and the human development index of countries, elimination efforts are unlikely to succeed unless prevention efforts focus on health equity, with a commitment to both primary and secondary prevention.