Current state and future perspectives on de facto population markers for normalization in wastewater-based...

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) and wastewater surveillance have become a valuable complementary data source to collect information on community-wide exposure through the measurement of human biomarkers in influent wastewater (IWW). In WBE, normalization of data with the de facto population that corresponds to a wastewater sample is crucial for a correct interpretation of spatio-temporal trends in exposure and consumption patterns. However, knowledge gaps remain in identifying and validating suitable de facto population biomarkers (PBs) for refinement of WBE back-estimations. WBE studies that apply de facto PBs (including hydrochemical parameters, utility consumption data sources, endo- and exogenous chemicals, biological biomarkers and signalling records) for relative trend analysis and absolute population size estimation were systematically reviewed from three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS) according to the PRISMA guidelines. We included in this review 81 publications that accounted for daily variations in population sizes by applying de facto population normalization. To date, a wide range of PBs have been proposed for de facto population normalization, complicating the comparability of normalized measurements across WBE studies. Additionally, the validation of potential PBs is complicated by the absence of an ideal external validator, magnifying the overall uncertainty for population normalization in WBE. Therefore, this review proposes a conceptual tier-based cross-validation approach for identifying and validating de facto PBs to guide their integration for i) relative trend analysis, and ii) absolute population size estimation. Furthermore, this review also provides a detailed evaluation of the uncertainty observed when comparing different de jure and de facto population estimation approaches. This study shows that their percentual differences can range up to ±200 %, with some exceptions showing even larger variations. This review underscores the need for collaboration among WBE researchers to further streamline the application of de facto population normalization and to evaluate the robustness of different PBs in different socio-demographic communities.