Probabilistic estimation of the source component of seismic hazard in North-Eastern Brazil

Stable continental regions pose unique challenges for conducting Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis because the earthquake activity driving mechanisms are poorly understood. For instance, the lower seismicity (hence the paucity of data) and the absence of well-defined active fault systems complicate accurately determining seismic source parameters. Northeastern Brazil is a stable continental region exhibiting moderate-size events recorded with significant seismic intensities and provoking the collapse of poorly constructed buildings in the last century. Thus, assessing the seismic hazard is critical for seismic risk mitigation. The seismic hazard depends on three components: source, path, and site, and here, we present the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the source component for NE Brazil. Spatial aggregation of earthquake sources outlined four areal seismic zones. A goodness-of-fit test rejected the Gutenberg-Richter model of magnitude frequency distribution in one of the studied seismic zones. For this reason, we estimated the magnitude probability distribution function in that zone using a nonparametric adaptive kernel estimator. In other zones the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency model was applied. In either way of the magnitude probability distribution modelling we considered the upper bound for magnitude equal to 6.6 m, based on the upper bound of a 95 % confidence interval for the standard normal distribution of palaeoearthquake sizes. Our findings suggests that potentially damaging events are likely to occur, and we cannot neglect chances for the occurrence of earthquakes exceeding 5.2 m. The calculated mean return periods indicate significantly shorter intervals between consecutive large events than palaeoseismic records.