Severe dawn phenomenon predicts long-term risk of all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

The dawn phenomenon (DP) is an abnormal early morning blood glucose rise without nocturnal hypoglycaemia, which can be more easily and precisely assessed with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). This prospective study aimed to explore the association between DP and the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

A total of 5542 adult inpatients with type 2 diabetes in a single centre were analysed. The magnitude of DP (ΔG) was defined as the increment in the CGM-determined glucose value from nocturnal nadir (after 24:00) to prebreakfast. Participants were stratified into four groups by ΔG: ≤1.11, 1.12-3.33, 3.34-5.55, and >5.55 mmol/L. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the impact of DP on all-cause mortality risk.

During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 1083 deaths were identified. The restricted cubic spline revealed a nonlinear (p for nonlinearity = 0.002) relationship between ΔG and the risk of all-cause mortality. A multivariate-adjusted Cox regression model including glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) showed that ΔG > 5.55 mmol/L was associated with 30% (95% CI, 1.01-1.66) higher risk of all-cause mortality, as compared with ΔG 1.12-3.33 mmol/L.

Higher ΔG is significantly related to an increased risk of all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes, suggesting that severe DP should be given more attention as a part of glucose management to reduce the risk of long-term adverse outcomes.