Long-term data reveal that grazer density mediates climatic stress in salt marshes

Understanding how climate and local stressors interact is paramount for predicting future ecosystem structure. The effects of multiple stressors are often examined in small-scale and short-term field experiments, limiting understanding of the spatial and temporal generality of the findings. Using a 22-year observational dataset of plant and grazer abundance in a southeastern US salt marsh, we analyzed how changes in drought and grazer density combined to affect plant biomass. We found: (1) increased drought severity and higher snail density both correlated with lower plant biomass; (2) drought and snail effects interacted additively; and, (3) snail effects had a threshold, with additive top-down effects only occurring when snails were present at high densities. These results suggest that the emergence of multiple stressor effects can be density dependent, and they validate short-term experimental evidence that consumers can augment environmental stress. These findings have important implications for predicting future ecosystem structure and managing natural ecosystems.