Untangling the stranglehold through mathematical modelling of Streptococcus equi subspecies equi transmission

Strangles, a disease caused by infection with Streptococccus equi subspecies equi (S. equi), is endemic worldwide and one of the most frequently diagnosed infectious diseases of horses. Recent work has improved our knowledge of key parameters of transmission dynamics, but important knowledge gaps remain. Our aim was to apply mathematical modelling of S. equi transmission dynamics to prioritise future research areas, and add precision to estimates of transmission parameters thereby improving understanding of S. equi epidemiology and quantifying the control effort required. A compartmental deterministic model was constructed. Parameter values were estimated from current literature wherever possible. We assessed the sensitivity of estimates for the basic reproduction number on the population scale to varying assumptions for the unknown or uncertain parameters of: (mean) duration of carriership (1∕γ_C), relative infectiousness of carriers (f), proportion of infections that result in carriership (p), and (mean) duration of immunity after natural infection (1∕γ_R). Available incidence and (sero-)prevalence data were compared to model outputs to improve point estimates and ranges for these currently unknown or uncertain transmission-related parameters. The required vaccination coverage of an ideal vaccine to prevent major outbreaks under a range of control scenarios was estimated, and compared available data on existing vaccines. The relative infectiousness of carriers (as compared to acutely ill horses) and the duration of carriership were identified as key knowledge gaps. Deterministic compartmental simulations, combined with seroprevalence data, suggest that 0.05