A non-destructive predictive model for estimating the freshness/spoilage of packaged chicken meat using changes in...

This study investigates the possibility of utilizing drip as a non-destructive method for assessing the freshness and spoilage of chicken meat. The quality parameters [pH, volatile base nitrogen (VBN), and total aerobic bacterial counts (TAB)] of chicken meat were evaluated over a 13-day storage period in vacuum packaging at 4 °C. Simultaneously, the metabolites in the chicken meat and its drip were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance. Correlation (Pearson's and Spearman's rank) and pathway analyses were conducted to select the metabolites for model training. Binary logistic regression (model 1 and model 2) and multiple linear regression models (model 3-1 and model 3-2) were trained using selected metabolites, and their performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. As a result, the chicken meat was spoiled after 7 days of storage, exceeding 20 mg/100 g VBN and 5.7 log CFU/g TAB. The correlation analysis identified one organic acid, eight free amino acids, and five nucleic acids as highly correlated with chicken meat and its drip during storage. Pathway analysis revealed tyrosine and purine metabolism as metabolic pathways highly correlated with spoilage. Based on these findings, specific metabolites were selected for model training: ATP, glutamine, hypoxanthine, IMP, tyrosine, and tyramine. To predict the freshness and spoilage of chicken meat, model 1, trained using tyramine, ATP, tyrosine, and IMP from chicken meat, achieved a 99.9 % accuracy and had an ROC value of 0.884 when validated using drip metabolites. This model 1 was improved by training with tyramine and IMP from both chicken meat and its drip (model 2), which increased the ROC value for drip metabolites from 0.884 to 0.997. Finally, selected two metabolites (tyramine and IMP) can predict TAB and VBN quantitatively through models 3-1 and 3-2, respectively. Therefore, the model developed using metabolic changes in drip demonstrated the capability to non-destructively predict the freshness and spoilage of chicken meat at 4 °C. To make generic predictions, it is necessary to expand the model's applicability to various conditions, such as different temperatures, and validate its performance across multiple chicken batches.