Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients with ganglioneuroblastoma: A SEER-based study

The objective of this study was to construct a prognostic nomogram for ganglioneuroblastoma (GNB), as the prognosis of GNB is difficult to accurately predict before therapy.

The data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The patients included in this study were randomly divided into a development group and a validation group at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to filter the variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to assess the nomogram. All patients were redivided into two groups based on their nomogram total points, and overall survival was compared.

A total of 1194 GNB patients were retrospectively included, with 835 and 359 patients in the development and validation groups, respectively. Five independent prognostic factors, including age, primary tumor site, SEER stage, surgery and chemotherapy, were screened out and included in the nomogram. The consistency index (C-index) of the Cox regression model was 0.862 and 0.827 in the development group and the validation group, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) showed that the nomogram had good accuracy in predicting 3-, 5- and 10-year overall survival for GNB patients. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good agreement between the predicted outcomes and the actual observations. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves revealed that patients with nomogram scores below the median had a better prognosis.

Age, primary tumor site, SEER stage, surgery and chemotherapy may be independent prognostic factors for GNB. We constructed a nomogram based on the SEER database to predict the prognosis of GNB, but further optimization by adding more risk factors is needed for clinical application.