Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Climate change significantly impacts global biodiversity, yet its effects on bats in South Asia remain understudied.
• South Asia's megadiverse region features varied climates and vegetation, making bat responses to climate change uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species in South Asia.
• To understand potential shifts in bat distribution and biodiversity hotspots under different climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Ensemble ecological niche modeling using four algorithms (random forests, ANNs, MARS, MaxEnt).
• Defined current suitable areas (1970-2000) and projected future areas (2041-2060) under two climate models and two SSPs (SSP2, SSP5).

Main Results:

• Most bat species are predicted to retain most of their current suitable areas or lose small portions.
• Shifts in suitable areas are generally projected to occur northward.
• Biodiversity hotspots (areas suitable for >30% of species) are predicted to decrease in size and become more fragmented.

Conclusions:

• Near-future climate change may not cause dramatic bat distribution shifts in South Asia but could lead to the loss of local biodiversity hotspots.
• Results provide crucial insights for conservation planning, aiding in reappraising conservation priorities and strategies for South Asian bats.