Method for rock fracture prediction and early warning: Insight from fusion of multi-physics field information

Understanding the precursors leading to rock fracture is crucial for ensuring safety in mining and geotechnical engineering projects. To effectively discern these precursors, a collaborative monitoring approach that integrates multiple sources of information is imperative. This paper considered a rock multi-parameter monitoring loading system, incorporating infrared radiation and acoustic emission monitoring technologies to simultaneously track the rock fracture process. The study delves into the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of infrared radiation and acoustic emission in rock under loading. Utilizing stress, cumulative acoustic emission count, and average infrared radiation temperature (AIRT), the paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model termed "acoustic-thermal-stress" fusion information, employing principal component analysis (PCA). The research reveals that the sensitivity to rock sample damage response follows the sequence of cumulative acoustic emission count, AIRT, and stress. Furthermore, a novel method for identifying rock fracture precursors is proposed, based on the first derivative of the comprehensive evaluation model. This method addresses the limitations of single physical field information, enhancing the robustness of monitoring data. It determines the average stress level of fracture precursors to be 0.77σ_max. Subsequently, the study defines the probability function of rock damage during loading and fracture, enabling the realization of probability-based warnings for rock fracture. This approach introduces a new perspective on rock fracture prediction, significantly contributing to safety monitoring and warning systems in mine safety and geotechnical engineering. The findings of this research hold paramount engineering significance, offering valuable insights for enhancing safety measures in such projects.