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Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming
Hui Chen1,2, Yishuai Jin3,4, Zhengyu Liu5,6
1Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Nature Communications
|May 22, 2024
Summary
Global warming may reduce the predictability of Central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. This climate shift, driven by faster ocean warming, makes future ENSO predictions more challenging.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary driver of tropical Pacific climate variability.
- The behavior and predictability of ENSO may be altered by global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how global warming affects ENSO predictability.
- To determine if Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO exhibit different future predictability.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
- Assessment of ENSO persistence and predictability under projected warming scenarios.
Main Results:
- A robust decrease in the persistence and predictability of CP ENSO is observed under global warming.
- The spring predictability barrier for CP ENSO is projected to strengthen by 25%.
- Predictability of EP ENSO is not significantly affected by global warming.
Conclusions:
- Faster tropical Pacific surface ocean warming and enhanced damping rates reduce CP ENSO predictability.
- Future greenhouse warming poses significant challenges for predicting CP ENSO events.
- Changes in CP ENSO predictability have broad implications for future climate forecasting.
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