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National Population Growth Rate, Its Components, and Subnational Contributions: A Research Note
Vladimir Canudas-Romo1, Tianyu Shen1, Collin F Payne1,2
1School of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
This study adapts the variable-r model to analyze population growth using shorter demographic data series. Shorter series accurately reflect historical fertility, mortality, and migration trends, influencing population dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Quantitative Social Science
Background:
- Population growth is driven by fertility, mortality, and migration.
- Traditional analysis requires over 100 years of demographic data, limiting scope.
- Understanding historical contributions to growth is crucial for policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To adapt the variable-r model for analyzing population growth with shorter demographic data series.
- To assess the impact of historical fertility, mortality, and migration on population growth rates.
- To extend the model for analyzing subnational contributions to national population growth.
Main Methods:
- Adaptation of the variable-r model for demographic analysis.
- Utilizing shorter historical demographic data series (e.g., 25 years).
- Decomposition of age-specific growth rates into components of change.
Main Results:
- Short historical series (25 years) provide age-specific growth rates closely matching longer series.
- Abbreviated age-specific growth rates are primarily determined by birth rates, with mortality significant at older ages.
- Subnational analysis reveals heterogeneity in growth components and disproportionate influence of populous regions on national growth.
Conclusions:
- The adapted variable-r model enables robust population growth analysis with limited historical data.
- Short-term demographic trends effectively capture long-term drivers of population change.
- Subnational demographic variations significantly impact national population dynamics.
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