Uncertainty-Aware First-Principles Exploration of Chemical Reaction Networks

Exploring large chemical reaction networks with automated exploration approaches and accurate quantum chemical methods can require prohibitively large computational resources. Here, we present an automated exploration approach that focuses on the kinetically relevant part of the reaction network by interweaving (i) large-scale exploration of chemical reactions, (ii) identification of kinetically relevant parts of the reaction network through microkinetic modeling, (iii) quantification and propagation of uncertainties, and (iv) reaction network refinement. Such an uncertainty-aware exploration of kinetically relevant parts of a reaction network with automated accuracy improvement has not been demonstrated before in a fully quantum mechanical approach. Uncertainties are identified by local or global sensitivity analysis. The network is refined in a rolling fashion during the exploration. Moreover, the uncertainties are considered during kinetically steering of a rolling reaction network exploration. We demonstrate our approach for Eschenmoser-Claisen rearrangement reactions. The sensitivity analysis identifies that only a small number of reactions and compounds are essential for describing the kinetics reliably, resulting in efficient explorations without sacrificing accuracy and without requiring prior knowledge about the chemistry unfolding.