Interactions between ENDS and cigarette use: evidence from a 2022 national telephone survey in South Africa

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) may serve as a cessation tool for people who smoke cigarettes. However, for people who do not smoke, ENDS may be a gateway to nicotine addiction and cigarette use. This paper aims to quantify these behaviours in South Africa.

We analysed a nationally representative telephone survey of 21 263 South Africans living in urban areas. For those respondents who had used both products (N=771), we developed a typology that describes the sequence in which cigarette and ENDS initiation occurred. 'On-rampers' describe people who used ENDS first and later initiated cigarette smoking. 'Off-rampers' describe people who used cigarettes first, took up ENDS and later quit cigarettes while still using ENDS. 'Failed off-rampers' describe people who started using ENDS while smoking cigarettes but later quit using ENDS. 'Continuing dual consumers' describe people still using both products at the time of the interview.

Of the overall sample (N=21 263), 1.7% used or had used ENDS but had no history of using cigarettes. Of dual consumers (N=771), 8.8% were classified as 'on-rampers', 13.9% as 'off-rampers', 20.9% as 'failed off-rampers' and 56.4% as 'continuing dual consumers'. Roughly half of those classified as off-rampers, failed off-rampers or continuing dual consumers stated that they started using ENDS to help them quit cigarettes.

The typology reveals a multifaceted relationship between ENDS and cigarette use in South Africa. Policy interventions should aim to minimise on-ramping and maximise off-ramping. Given the high prevalence of continued dual use and failed off-ramping, targeted cessation support should be provided for people who use ENDS and are trying to quit cigarettes.