Modeling Population Growth under Climate Stressors Using Age-Structured Matrix Models

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Physiology

Background:

• Climate resilience research often overlooks early life stages due to sampling biases.
• Understanding population-level responses to environmental change requires a comprehensive life-history approach.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the impact of pre- and postnatal stressors on population growth rates in zebra finches.
• To determine if early life stages have a greater influence on population dynamics than later stages.

Main Methods:

• Laboratory studies administering stressors (e.g., incubation temperature, heat, food restriction) to zebra finches.
• Quantification of hatching success, posthatch survival, and reproductive success.
• Parameterization of age-structured population dynamics models to estimate effects on growth rates.

Main Results:

• Embryonic stressors (suboptimal incubation temperature, reduced gas exchange) had a greater impact on population growth than posthatch stressors.
• Hatching success and offspring sex ratio changes had a larger effect on population growth rates than other demographic rates.
• Early life stage impacts were more significant for population resilience than later life stage impacts.

Conclusions:

• Predicting population resilience to climate change necessitates considering effects across all life stages, especially embryonic development.
• Individual physiology and stress tolerance are critical factors influencing future population responses to environmental change.
• A holistic approach incorporating early life stages and individual traits is vital for accurate climate resilience modeling.