Decision-making in the multiphase optimization strategy: Applying decision analysis for intervention value efficiency...

Advances in the multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) have suggested a new approach, decision analysis for intervention value efficiency (DAIVE), for selecting an optimized intervention based on the results of a factorial optimization trial. The new approach opens possibilities to select optimized interventions based on multiple valued outcomes. We applied DAIVE to identify an optimized information leaflet intended to support eventual adherence to adjuvant endocrine therapy for women with breast cancer. We used empirical performance data for five candidate leaflet components on three hypothesized antecedents of adherence: beliefs about the medication, objective knowledge about AET, and satisfaction with medication information. Using data from a 25 factorial trial (n = 1603), we applied the following steps: (i) We used Bayesian factorial analysis of variance to estimate main and interaction effects for the five factors on the three outcomes. (ii) We used posterior distributions for main and interaction effects to estimate expected outcomes for each leaflet version (32 total). (iii) We scaled and combined outcomes using a linear value function with predetermined weights indicating the relative importance of outcomes. (iv) We identified the leaflet that maximized the value function as the optimized leaflet, and we systematically varied outcome weights to explore robustness. The optimized leaflet included two candidate components, side-effects, and patient input, set to their higher levels. Selection was generally robust to weight variations consistent with the initial preferences for three outcomes. DAIVE enables selection of optimized interventions with the best-expected performance on multiple outcomes.