A novel nomogram and survival analysis for different lymph node status in breast cancer based on the SEER database

The axillary lymph node status (ALNS) and internal mammary lymph nodes (IMLN) expression associated with breast cancer are closely linked to prognosis. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict survival at 3, 5, and 10 years in patients with various lymph node statuses.

We obtained data from patients with breast cancer between 2004 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER database). Chi-square analysis was performed to test for differences in the pathological characteristics of the groups, and Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test were used to plot and compare the correlation between overall survival (OS) and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS). The log-rank test was used for the univariate analysis, and statistically significant characteristics were included in the multivariate and Cox regression analyses. Finally, Independent factor identification was included in constructing the nomogram using R studio 4.2.0; area under curve (AUC) values were calculated, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were plotted for evaluation.

A total of 279,078 patients were enrolled and analysed, demonstrating that the isolated tumour cells (ITC) group had clinicopathological characteristics similar to those of micrometastases (Mic). Multivariate analysis was performed to identify each subgroup's independent risk factors and construct a nomogram. The AUC values were 74.7 (95% CI 73.6-75.8), 72.8 (95% CI 71.9-73.8), and 71.2 (95% CI 70.2-72.2) for 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS, respectively, and 82.2 (95% CI 80.9-83.6), 80.1 (95% CI 79.0-81.2), and 75.5 (95% CI 74.3-76.8) for BCSS in overall breast cancer cases, respectively. AUC values for 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS in the ITC group were 64.8 (95% CI 56.5-73.2), 67.7 (95% CI 62.0-73.4), and 65.4 (95% CI 60.0-70.7), respectively. For those in the Mic group, AUC values for 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 72.9 (95% CI 70.7-75.1), 72.4 (95% CI 70.6-74.1), and 71.3 (95% CI 69.6-73.1), respectively, and AUC values for BCSS were 77.8 (95% CI 74.9-80.7), 75.7 (95% CI 73.5-77.9), and 70.3 (95% CI 68.0-72.6), respectively. In the IMLN group, AUC values for 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 75.2 (95% CI 71.7-78.7), 73.4 (95% CI 70.0-76.8), and 74.0 (95% CI 69.6-78.5), respectively, and AUC values for BCSS were 76.6 (95% CI 73.0-80.3), 74.1 (95% CI 70.5-77.7), and 74.7 (95% CI 69.8-79.5), respectively. The ROC, calibration, and DCA curves verified that the nomogram had better predictability and benefits.

This study is the first to investigate the predictive value of different axillary lymph node statuses and internal mammary lymph node metastases in breast cancer, providing clinicians with additional aid in treatment decisions.