Tumour growth rate predicts overall survival in patients with recurrent WHO grade 4 glioma

Accurate prognostication may aid in the selection of patients who will benefit from surgery at recurrent WHO grade 4 glioma. This study aimed to evaluate the role of serial tumour volumetric measurements for prognostication at first tumour recurrence.

We retrospectively analyzed patients with histologically-diagnosed WHO grade 4 glioma at initial and at first tumour recurrence at a tertiary hospital between May 2000 and September 2018. We performed auto-segmentation using ITK-SNAP software, followed by manual adjustment to measure serial contrast-enhanced T1W (CE-T1W) and T2W lesional volume changes on all MRI images performed between initial resection and repeat surgery.

Thirty patients met inclusion criteria; the median overall survival using Kaplan-Meier analysis from second surgery was 10.5 months. Seventeen (56.7%) patients received treatment post second surgery. Univariate cox regression analysis showed that greater rate of increase in lesional volume on CE-T1W (HR = 2.57; 95% CI [1.18, 5.57]; p = 0.02) in the last 2 MRI scans leading up to the second surgery was associated with a higher mortality likelihood. Patients with higher Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) (HR = 0.97; 95% CI [0.95, 0.99]; p = 0.01) and who received further treatment following second surgery (HR = 0.43; 95% CI [0.19, 0.98]; p = 0.04) were shown to have a better survival.

Higher rate of CE-T1W lesional growth on the last 2 MRI images prior to surgery at recurrence was associated with increase mortality risk. A larger prospective study is required to determine and validate the threshold to distinguish rapidly progressive tumour with poor prognosis.