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Estimating waiting time for compatible blood: A Negative Binomial approach.
1Oklahoma Blood Institute, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA.
Transfusion
|May 28, 2024
Summary
The Negative Binomial Distribution offers a more accurate method for estimating blood units needed for compatibility screening. This approach reduces underestimation compared to current methods, improving efficiency and satisfaction.
Area of Science:
- Statistics
- Blood Transfusion Medicine
Background:
- Blood unit compatibility screening follows a Bernoulli series.
- Estimating screened units is a waiting time problem, often addressed with the Negative Binomial Distribution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the Negative Binomial Distribution for estimating blood units needed for compatibility screening.
- To address underestimation issues with the current r/p method.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the cumulative distribution function of the Negative Binomial Distribution (F(n;r,p)).
- Set a high cumulative probability threshold (e.g., F ≈ 0.9) to ensure reliable estimates.
Main Results:
- The Negative Binomial Distribution method suggests screening 1.3 to 2.3 times more units than the current r/p method.
- A rule of thumb is to screen approximately 1.6 times the current estimate (n ≈ 1.6∙r/p).
Conclusions:
- Employing the Negative Binomial Distribution significantly reduces underestimation in waiting time calculations.
- This improved estimation is expected to enhance customer satisfaction in blood transfusion services.
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