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Resilience assessment in complex natural systems.

Camilla Sguotti1,2, Paraskevas Vasilakopoulos3, Evangelos Tzanatos4

  • 1Department of Biology, University of Padova , Padova 35100, Italy.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|May 29, 2024
PubMed
Summary

Ecological resilience, the ability of ecosystems to avoid irreversible shifts, can now be estimated using the Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) method. This approach aids in sustainable ecosystem management amidst climate change.

Keywords:
climate changeecosystem-based managementregime shiftsresiliencestochastic cusp modeltipping points

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Catastrophe Theory

Background:

  • Ecological resilience is crucial for ecosystem stability and avoiding regime shifts.
  • Current methods for estimating resilience in real-world ecosystems are limited.
  • Catastrophe theory provides a framework for understanding tipping points and system dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an empirical approach for estimating ecological resilience.
  • To introduce the Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) method based on the stochastic cusp model.
  • To provide a tool for ecosystem-based management under changing environmental conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory.
  • Extended the cusp model to identify stable and unstable states in natural systems.
  • Applied the Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) to simulated and empirical data.

Main Results:

  • Developed CUSPRA to estimate the likelihood of crossing tipping points with hysteresis.
  • Assessed resilience in relation to multiple external drivers.
  • Demonstrated CUSPRA's applicability using Atlantic cod population and North/Mediterranean Sea ecosystem data.

Conclusions:

  • CUSPRA is a powerful empirical method for estimating ecological resilience.
  • The method provides straightforward results for ecosystem-based management.
  • CUSPRA supports sustainable management of ecosystems adapting to global climate change.