Developing a Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Intervention in Pediatric Intussusception After Pneumatic Reduction: A

Jie Liu1,2, Yongkai Wang3, Zhihui Jiang4

  • 1Department of Pediatric Surgery, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, People's Republic of China.

Insights

This study developed a nomogram to predict surgical needs in pediatric intussusception after pneumatic reduction. The tool identifies children likely to require surgery based on key clinical factors, aiding treatment decisions.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Surgery
  • Gastroenterology
  • Medical Imaging

Background:

  • Intussusception is a common surgical emergency in children.
  • Pneumatic reduction is a primary treatment, but recurrence and failure necessitate further intervention.
  • Predictive tools are needed to guide management decisions after initial reduction attempts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting surgical intervention in pediatric intussusception post-pneumatic reduction.
  • To identify key clinical predictors of failed pneumatic reduction requiring surgery.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 1041 pediatric intussusception cases from four Chinese hospitals (2019-2022).
  • Patients divided into successful (control) and failed (operation) pneumatic reduction groups.
  • Logistic regression used to build a predictive model, with data split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets.

Main Results:

  • A nomogram was constructed based on five independent predictors: age, duration of abdominal pain, hematochezia, C-reactive protein levels, and ultrasound-indicated intussusception position.
  • The nomogram effectively predicted the failure of pneumatic reduction, indicating the need for surgical intervention.

Conclusions:

  • A validated nomogram can accurately predict the likelihood of surgical intervention in pediatric intussusception after pneumatic reduction.
  • The nomogram incorporates readily available clinical and imaging data, making it a practical tool for risk stratification.
  • This tool assists clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who may require prompt surgical management.
Abstract