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Developing a Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Intervention in Pediatric Intussusception After Pneumatic Reduction: A
Jie Liu1,2, Yongkai Wang3, Zhihui Jiang4
1Department of Pediatric Surgery, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, People's Republic of China.
Insights
This study developed a nomogram to predict surgical needs in pediatric intussusception after pneumatic reduction. The tool identifies children likely to require surgery based on key clinical factors, aiding treatment decisions.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Surgery
- Gastroenterology
- Medical Imaging
Background:
- Intussusception is a common surgical emergency in children.
- Pneumatic reduction is a primary treatment, but recurrence and failure necessitate further intervention.
- Predictive tools are needed to guide management decisions after initial reduction attempts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting surgical intervention in pediatric intussusception post-pneumatic reduction.
- To identify key clinical predictors of failed pneumatic reduction requiring surgery.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 1041 pediatric intussusception cases from four Chinese hospitals (2019-2022).
- Patients divided into successful (control) and failed (operation) pneumatic reduction groups.
- Logistic regression used to build a predictive model, with data split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets.
Main Results:
- A nomogram was constructed based on five independent predictors: age, duration of abdominal pain, hematochezia, C-reactive protein levels, and ultrasound-indicated intussusception position.
- The nomogram effectively predicted the failure of pneumatic reduction, indicating the need for surgical intervention.
Conclusions:
- A validated nomogram can accurately predict the likelihood of surgical intervention in pediatric intussusception after pneumatic reduction.
- The nomogram incorporates readily available clinical and imaging data, making it a practical tool for risk stratification.
- This tool assists clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who may require prompt surgical management.
Purpose:
The objective of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the need for surgical intervention in pediatric intussusception after pneumatic reduction.
Patients And Methods:
This retrospective study analyzed the clinical data of children with acute intussusception admitted to four hospitals in China from January 2019 to January 2022. Based on the results of pneumatic reduction, the patients were divided into two groups: the successful reduction group (control group) and the failed reduction group (operation group). The total sample was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7:3 ratio. Logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a predictive model for surgical risk.
Results:
A total of 1041 samples were included in this study, with 852 in the control group and 189 in the operation group. Among the total sample, 728 cases were used for training and 313 cases were used for validation. Logistic regression analysis of the training set identified age, time of abdominal pain, presence or absence of hematostoecia, C-reactive protein value from blood test on admission, and nested position indicated by B-ultrasound as independent predictors of intussusception intervention. Based on the five independent risk factors identified through multivariate logistic regression, a nomogram was successfully constructed to predict the failure of resetting by air enema under X-ray.
Conclusion:
A nomogram was developed to predict the need for surgical intervention after intussusception pneumatic reduction in children. The nomogram was based on clinical risk factors including age, time of abdominal pain, presence or absence of blood in stool, value of C-reactive protein in blood test on admission, and nested position indicated by B-ultrasound. Our internal validation demonstrated that this nomogram can serve as a useful tool for identifying risk factors associated with failure of air enema in children with intussusception.
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