Trends in cancer mortality among the elderly in China, 2005-2035

With the appearance and aggravation of the aging society, cancer has become one of the major problems that threaten the life and health of Chinese residents seriously.

To explore the cancer epidemiological characteristics among the elderly in China from 2005 to 2016, and to provide strategies for cancer prevention and treatment.

Stratified analysis was conducted on the cancer mortality data of the elderly aged ≥60 years in China, which were selected from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculted average annual percentage change (AAPC) to estimate the time trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to explore the age, period and birth cohort effect on the risk of cancer death. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict trends in cancer mortality among elderly by gender and region to 2035.

2005-2016, cancer mortality in the elderly in China showed a decreasing trend (AAPC = -1.2%, P<0.001). Cancer mortality in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas, but the urban-rural difference gradually narrowed (t = 6.1, P<0.01). The APC model showed that cancer mortality increased with age. The relative risk (RR) for the period effect decreased. RR was lower for the later- born cohort than that for the earlier-born cohort in rural areas. Lung cancer mortality ranked first in both male and female, and showed an increasing trend among female in the 60-64, 80-84 and ≥85 age groups (AAPC60-64 = 1.0%, AAPC80-84 = 0.8%, AAPC≥85 = 2.0%, all P<0.05). By 2035, cancer mortality for the elderly was predicted to decline nationally, by sex and in rural areas, while rising in urban areas.

Cancer mortality in the elderly in China showed a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2016, but it was still higher than the world average. Early cancer screening is important, especially in the elderly male and in rural areas.