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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Climatology
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Climate warming is shifting cold regions from snow to rain, altering snowpack dynamics and impacting ecosystem services.
  • Existing models suggest declining snowfall fraction leads to earlier snowmelt and streamflow, but this response is uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the complex responses of streamflow timing to declining snowfall fraction across the Northern Hemisphere.
  • To challenge the simplistic 'less snow equals earlier streamflow' heuristic.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzed streamflow measurements from 3,049 snow-affected catchments across the Northern Hemisphere spanning 1950-2020.
  • Examined the relationship between snowfall fraction and the timing of streamflow mass center.

Main Results:

  • Declining snowfall fraction can lead to either advanced or delayed streamflow timing.
  • The response of streamflow timing is modulated by the mean snowfall fraction, with snow-rich catchments showing earlier streamflow and less snowy catchments showing delayed streamflow.
  • Interannual variability in streamflow timing and seasonal variation increase with decreasing snowfall fraction.

Conclusions:

  • The relationship between snowfall fraction and streamflow timing is more complex than previously assumed.
  • Findings indicate a nuanced evolution of seasonal streamflow regimes in response to decreasing snowpack.
  • Revises the understanding of hydrological responses to climate change in snow-dominated regions.