Wind-driven post-bloom dispersion of Microcystis in a large shallow eutrophic lake: A case study in Lake Taihu

To clarify the wind-driven post-bloom dispersion range of Microcystis, which originally clustered on the water surface, an Individual-Based Model (IBM) of Microcystis movement considering the combined effects of wind and light was developed based on actual hydrodynamic data and Microcystis biomass. After calibrating the effects of hydrodynamics and light, 66 cases of short-term (within a week) post-bloom with satellite images from 2011 to 2017 were simulated. The results showed that there were three short-term post-bloom types: vertical reduction (VR), horizontal reduction (HR) and mixed reduction (MR). For VR type, the cyanobacterial bloom reduction rate was rapid (>160 km²/day), but the dispersion range of Microcystis was limited (<2 km/day), and a larger bloom area was likely to form in the original location when wind speed decreased. For HR type, the cyanobacterial bloom reduction rate was slow (<10 km²/day), but Microcystis exhibited a broad dispersion range (>4 km/day), often leading to smaller, thicker, and longer-lasting cyanobacterial blooms downwind, albeit with a lower probability of occurrence. The characteristics of MR lay between the two aforementioned types.