Triceps skinfold thickness trajectories and the risk of all-cause mortality: A prospective cohort study

The measurement of triceps skinfold (TSF) thickness serves as a noninvasive metric for evaluating subcutaneous fat distribution. Despite its clinical utility, the TSF thickness trajectories and their correlation with overall mortality have not been thoroughly investigated.

To explore TSF thickness trajectories of Chinese adults and to examine their associations with all-cause mortality.

This study encompassed a cohort of 14747 adults sourced from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Latent class trajectory modeling was employed to identify distinct trajectories of TSF thickness. Subjects were classified into subgroups reflective of their respective TSF thickness trajectory. We utilized multivariate Cox regression analyses and mediation examinations to explore the link between TSF thickness trajectory and overall mortality, including contributory factors.

Upon adjustment for multiple confounding factors, we discerned that males in the 'Class 2: Thin-stable' and 'Class 3: Thin-moderate' TSF thickness trajectories exhibited a markedly reduced risk of mortality from all causes in comparison to the 'Class 1: Extremely thin' subgroup. In the mediation analyses, the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index was found to be a partial intermediary in the relationship between TSF thickness trajectories and mortality. For females, a lower TSF thickness pattern was significantly predictive of elevated all-cause mortality risk exclusively within the non-elderly cohort.

In males and non-elderly females, lower TSF thickness trajectories are significantly predictive of heightened mortality risk, independent of single-point TSF thickness, body mass index, and waist circumference.